Company Breakdown
Why everyone's wrong about Netflix: three reasons the stock could run
Netflix stock is down ~50% while the business keeps growing. Flow's three reasons it could run: a cheap price, a booming ad business, and a new TikTok-style feed called Clips.
Netflix stock is down almost 50% from its high (~$134 to ~$73) — but the business wasn't cut in half, just the price. Flow's three reasons it could run: (1) it's cheap while revenue hits a record (over $51 billion this year), (2) a fast-growing ad business (~$1.5 billion last year, roughly double this year), and (3) "Clips," Netflix's new TikTok-style feed coming for the minutes you spend scrolling.
Reason 1: the stock got cheap, not the business
"At its most expensive, Netflix was around $134 a share; today it's only $73" — down nearly 50%. But "the business did not get cut in half, just the stock price." Netflix is making more revenue than ever, expecting over $51 billion this year with better margins. (Context: Netflix did a 10-for-1 stock split in November 2025, which is why the share numbers look small — the 2026 revenue forecast of roughly $50.7–51.7 billion confirms Flow's figure.)
Reason 2: an advertising monster
"Netflix is quietly building an advertising monster." Last year it made around $1.5 billion from ads; this year it expects roughly double that. That checks out — Netflix's ad revenue is on track to reach about $3 billion in 2026, doubling year over year, with the ad-supported plan driving a majority of new sign-ups where it's offered.
Reason 3: Clips — coming for your scroll
The reason Flow is most excited about: Netflix launched Clips, a TikTok/Reels/Shorts-style vertical feed. "Netflix has spent decades fighting for the hours we spend watching TV. Now they're coming for the minutes we spend scrolling on our phones." Netflix has said ads are coming to Clips in 2027 — meaning Netflix is now fighting YouTube, TikTok and Instagram for attention, not just Disney and HBO. (Clips launched May 1, 2026.)
This is educational content, not financial advice. Any figures are illustrations, not promises. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. Do your own research and consider a licensed professional.
The receipts
Sources and context behind the facts on this page. Flow's analysis is his own; sourced facts are labeled where the distinction matters.
- Netflix 10-for-1 stock split, Nov 17, 2025 (Netflix IR); NFLX ~$72 in mid-September 2026 (Yahoo Finance)
- Netflix 2026 revenue guidance ~$50.7–51.7B; ad revenue on track for ~$3B, doubling YoY (Netflix 8-K/10-Q, AdExchanger, CNBC)
- Netflix "Clips" vertical-video feed launched May 1, 2026; ads to Clips planned for 2027 (Variety, The Hollywood Reporter, TechCrunch)
Flow the Investor is the creator of Heavy Returns, a financial-media brand teaching everyday people to invest and trade with discipline — what he calls Trained Money. He presents every video on the official @HeavyReturns channel.
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